Recovery, Rebound or Inflation?

Market Update

Q1 2021 Market Update

As the global economy moves towards recovery and the UK moves out of its third COVID-19 lockdown, John Butters (Chief Investment Officer, Weatherbys Private Bank) and Paul Dales (Chief UK Economist, Capital Economics) discuss the economic outlook and how policymakers will respond.

Key forecasts

• the economic recovery is going to be faster than the consensus expects
• inflation will rise above 2% but not until 2023
• interest rates will stay at current low levels for longer than markets are pricing in
• a strong recovery will reduce the need for major tax hikes
• the environment is positive for asset prices, such as UK equities, and the pound

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